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After decades of unstoppable growth, the enterprise software market could be entering a new era of zero expansion or even an extended period of course correction for the next few years. The unprecedented development, which became evident in our latest survey of over 3,000 enterprise software vendors and their 2015 results, can be attributed to the convergence of three significant events that have upended the marketplace – cloud adoptions, unfavorable exchange rates for US firms, and the overhang of dubious acquisitions. Microsoft tops 2015 enterprise software market with $45B in product revenues The enterprise software market covers a full assortment of commercially off-the-shelf products ranging from corporate databases to Enterprise Resource Planning(ERP) solutions and from Cloud-enabled productivity tools to mission-critical vertical applications. For more than three decades, these enterprise software products have been the linchpin to increased workplace productivity by simplifying an array of business tasks with the help of groundbreaking technologies from easy-to-use accounting packages to powerful Middleware and from cybersecurity tools to indispensable spreadsheets.

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Analytics and business intelligence vendor SAS, for example, posted a record revenue of $3.2 billion in 2015, a 2.3% rise from 2014, continuing its streak of uninterrupted topline growth by achieving double-digit or even triple-digit in annual sales increases especially in its formative years after it commenced its operations in 1976 when it sold $138,000 worth of software. Now many of these enterprise software vendors are bracing for leaner years ahead. In 2015, the enterprise software market grew a modest 2.2% to $320 billion in 2015, up from $313 billion a year earlier, according to our annual survey.

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The outlook is less rosy because of a combination of factors including shifting business models in favor of Cloud delivery and subscription pricing, compounded by the lag effect of delayed revenue recognition by enterprise applications vendors in order to adapt to new ways of selling their products. As shown in Exhibit 1, the enterprise software market is projected to turn in little or no growth through 2020 potentially dragging down a number of underlying markets including database, middleware as well as other platform and system infrastructure technologies. Enterprise applications written for customer relationship management, human resources and vertical-industry business processes are expected to fare better as replacements of legacy systems(many of which were last installed prior to the Year 2000 conversion) will pick up speed in order to take advantage of cloud computing, mobile content delivery and real-time reporting.